The "Goodbye, Ladies" Draft Report

Hey. Although this isn't the proper place for...

2010-03-23T00:08:32.598-04:00

Hey. Although this isn't the proper place for this comment, I was just wondering if you guys were going to do a draft preview this year. I figured a comment here is more likely to get attention. I would be especially interested in a new edition of 4-3 DE / 3-4 OLB pass rush projections.

I think, as said above, the situation in which the...

2009-05-17T07:48:00.000-04:00

I think, as said above, the situation in which the quarterback is thrown into is more for a factor then you mentioned.

I agree with what you said that quarterbacks are born and not made, but I think a real talent-born quarterback can become a failure due to lack of confidence, the main reason being he gets sacked a million times his rookie season. David Carr is of course the picture boy for this, and I just don't want what happened to Carr happen to Stafford. But on the other hand, Matthew Stafford is one of the most confident guys out there, and I think he is the kind of guy, maybe like a Peyton Manning (who, by the way, said the Lions should throw Stafford in there right away.) who has the confidence to bounce back from a poor rookie season.

It's a very tough decision to make and Schwartz along with the rest of the coaching staff are certainly going to have their work cut out for them. Let's just hope, whatever the decision, that Stafford isn't another Harrington, and like you said, if he is then let's hope the Lions organization can man up and move on before they let him screw us up for the next five years.

"With [Matthew] Stafford, I think you throw him in...

2009-05-04T14:18:00.000-04:00

"With [Matthew] Stafford, I think you throw him in there right away. I think he's lucky, the fact that he's coming in with a new coaching staff. That's a big advantage because basically he's just like all the other veterans as far as learning this new system, learning the way their new head coach is going to approach things, learning his philosophy ... I'm waiting for somebody to break that NFL rookie record for interceptions I set back in '98. Hopefully Stafford will give it a good run. But I'll say this, there's no way I could have played as well as I did in my second year if I hadn't played that first year.''
-Peyton Manning, as told to Peter King

Hey Anonymous, Thanks for your long and obviously...

2009-05-03T10:51:00.000-04:00

Hey Anonymous,

Thanks for your long and obviously well-thought out commment. I think the question that I am trying to answer is narrower than the one that you are addressing: I am not trying to answer definitively how much a quarterback's supporting cast has to do with his success or failure, I am trying to determine whether there is anything to back up the widespread belief that the best way to "develop" a quarterback is to sit him on a bench. I have concluded that there is no evidence for this: that in fact first round quarterbacks who have played right away have historically performed slightly better than their peers who have sat. I am merely noting that this issue comes up a lot in the context of the "are QBs born or made" debate.

To take Alex Smith, as your example, let's assume that he was ruined by a bad situation. All my analysis would say is that whether or not he was "ruined by a bad situation" it was not because he inserted as a rookie. In other words, if Alex Smith had sat out a year and then entered an equally bad 49ers situation as a first-year player, he would still fail. This post is all about the timing.

Another problem is that there is no way to predict what is a "good situation" or not. Nobody in their right mind would have said that the 2009 Atlanta Falcons were a "great situation" for a young QB like Matt Ryan to start in. Nobody would have said that the 1-15 Indianapolis colts were a "great situation" for Peyton Manning. Joe Flacco stepped into a historically bad Baltimore Ravens offense who had just lost pro bowler left tackle Jonathon Ogden. If Alex Smith would have succeeded, people would have said that he walked into a "great situation" with up-and-comer Frank Gore in the backfield--just like they say with Ryan this year.

2009-05-03T10:50:00.000-04:00

This comment has been removed by the author.

Your statistical argument may help take into accou...

2009-05-02T22:57:00.000-04:00

Your statistical argument may help take into account some factors like the opponents strength, but it can't take into account all the factors that play into a QBs situation. The QB is dependent more on his surrounding talent than most other positions.

-Does he have a complement of good WRs an TEs? A QB that has at least one deep threat, one good possession receiver, and a solid TE as an outlet is going to outperform one that has below average receivers.

-How much pressure is he under due to poor line play? That isn't the same as sack numbers, as even pressures or just collapsing the pocket somewhat can force a QB to make mistakes, especially a young one.

-How good is his QB coach and offensive coordinator?

-Is he playing in an offensive system that fits his strengths?

-How effective is his teams running attack? That can take a huge amount of pressure off the QB. It is strange you didn't mention that at all, as it was a big factor in the rookie success of Ryan, Flacco, and Roethlisberger.

There are just so many factors that come into play. You noted that Alex Smith, for example, played horribly his rookie year. How can you NOT take into account the factors that played into that.

First of all, he had horrible surrounding talent. The 49ers were starting Johnnie Morton, Brandon Lloyd, and Arnaz Battle at WR. The top pass receiving TE was Eric Johnson, and he was out the entire year with a foot injury. His offensive line was very poor. The running attack was sub-standard due to the line issues. They also were still starting Kevan Barlow and gradually working Frank Gore into the offense as a backup.

It is pretty much impossible to predict who will succeed and who will fail because all of these things factor into it. Would Alex Smith have prospered if he had been drafted by the Packers and sat behind Favre all those years? Would Aaron Rodgers have succeeded being throw into a talent-poor environment of the 49ers, with the added problem of having to learn a new offensive system every year? Try all you want, but I don't think statistical analysis can answer those questions.

You'll have to wait, Mr. D! It's looking like the...

2009-04-25T17:48:00.000-04:00

You'll have to wait, Mr. D! It's looking like they might take Oher if he drops.

Who is next for the Loins Andre? Mr. D

2009-04-25T16:24:00.000-04:00

Who is next for the Loins Andre?

Mr. D

Les Steckles, That could potentially be a more ac...

2009-04-21T20:59:00.000-04:00

Les Steckles,

That could potentially be a more accurate way to do it, although finding box scores for all of those college games would be quite a task!

As far as the Big 12, interestingly, all of the Big 12 players in my model were overprojected except for Justin Smith. However, Smith was the only one who had a respectable adjusted sacks/game, so it is not like their projections were inflated because they racked up lots of sacks.

And Dales, I saw the Mr. X mock and it made me shiver. Just a little.

http://www.profootballtalk.com/2009/04/20/the-firs...

2009-04-21T11:49:00.000-04:00

http://www.profootballtalk.com/2009/04/20/the-first-mr-x-mock-draft/

Pro Football Talk has a 'new' mock draft up, made by some insider who supposedly consults with multiple NFL scouts.

They have Ayers going to... the Lions at pick 20. :-/

Wouldn't sack projections be more accurate if you ...

2009-04-21T09:47:00.000-04:00

Wouldn't sack projections be more accurate if you used sacks per pass attempt as opposed to sacks per game? A DE or OLB in a pass happy conference like the Big 12 would probably get more sacks per game than a similar player in the Big 10 or SEC.

Jason Jones is a Tennessee Titan, not a Houston Te...

2009-04-21T03:01:00.000-04:00

Jason Jones is a Tennessee Titan, not a Houston Texan.

His Misfit, Thanks for commenting! I actually di...

2009-04-20T22:46:00.000-04:00

His Misfit,

Thanks for commenting! I actually did not look at Tyson Jackson because I see him as either a 3-4 DE or a 4-3 DT, and the system really isn't designed to project those guys (I took out guys like Seymour from the model, which I think is a better analogue for Jackson).

That said, if some team were to take him and thought that he could just come off the edge like Dwight Freeney, and were willing to bench/cut him afterwards, he would project to only 3.5 sacks by Year 7. Now, I would think that he will probably drastically outperform his projection, because usually guys who are drafted to rush the passer get shoved out the door with that production, but Jackson's value will be stopping the run, and he'll get enough playing time to accidentally stumble towards the quarterback a couple of times ;).

Tyson Jackson has been getting a lot of attention ...

2009-04-20T22:08:00.000-04:00

Tyson Jackson has been getting a lot of attention recently. How do you project him?

BRIAN CALHOUN PLAYS WITH NO HEART! I HEARD HE DOES...

2008-11-21T01:25:00.000-05:00

BRIAN CALHOUN PLAYS WITH NO HEART! I HEARD HE DOES NOT WORK HARD IN THE OFF SEASON AND IS A BIG CRY BABY!

Thanks for stopping by, Houtexan! I would just ad...

2008-04-06T17:13:00.000-04:00

Thanks for stopping by, Houtexan! I would just add that the fact that Calhoun has been injured does not excuse him from being a bust. Also, based on the performance of players who have left the Lions after they leave the Lions (Mike McMahon, Joey Harrington, Mike Williams, Charles Rogers, etc.) I tend to believe that these players aren't bad because they're on the Lions, but rather that they're on the Lions because they're bad players.

You might want to re-evaluate your alliances if yo...

2008-04-04T22:09:00.000-04:00

You might want to re-evaluate your alliances if you are defending Brian Calhoun...

He's been hurt! The Lions are trash and a dumpste...

2008-04-04T09:27:00.000-04:00

He's been hurt! The Lions are trash and a dumpster for players to never show they're good!